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Rookies to Look For: Jay Bruce

Christopher Solberg, Editor
5/21/2008

"Rookies to Look For" is a new section that I will be starting as I diversify the sections of Baseball Opinion.  I will be reviewing talent that is nearly ready to make the jump to the majors and others that have surprised some by their quick jump to the big leagues.

Going into this season, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce was looked at by many as the top prospect in all of baseball.  Many even picked him as the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Bruce is a veritable 5-tool talent.  He hits for a high average (currently at .366 in Triple-A), 30-40 home run potential, 20-30 stolen base abilities, has a good arm, and plays good all-around defense. He still needs to improve his plate discipline (11/39 BB/K ratio in 164 at-bats) to really succeed in the bigs, but his current 1.059 OPS is not a fluke.  If Bruce were to be called up before the All-Star Break this season, and plays the rest of the season in majors, I could see him putting up a .300/25 HR/25 SB season as soon as 2009.

Although he has come up as a centerfielder, some scouts believe that he is more suited for right field.  He is blocked in that spot by a future hall-of-famer in Ken Griffey Jr.  From the sounds of it, the Reds would love to shed Griffey’s contract.  But with Griffey hitting a lackluster .252,with an ugly .368 slugging percentage, it looks as if the team would have to eat a large portion of his contract in a trade.

But Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty is a true master of trades and he might be able to scrounge up something for Griffey.  Reports from numerous blogs have said that the Seattle Mariners have expressed interest in him and Griffey has said in the past that he would like to end his career there.  The Mariners could conceivably move Raul Ibanez to DH and ask Griffey to play left field so that Wladimir Balentien could continue to settle in right field.  Or, if the feel that Balentien is overmatched, he could be sent down for more seasoning.

He’s also expressed interest in the past of playing for the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves currently have Gregor Blanco playing over a slumping Matt Diaz.  Although Blanco has held an on-base percentage of over .400 for the past month, he has no power and his stolen base to caught stealing ratio last season at Triple-A was dreadful (23/18), leaving him as a basic fourth or fifth outfielder.

Wherever he goes, it looks like Junior is on his way out of town.  The Reds may try to wait for him to hit home run number 600 before they pull the trade, but his days are truly numbered as the team cannot hold Jay Bruce back much longer.

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